Usefulness of Different Mortality Risk Scores in Patients with Heart Failure. A Retrospective and Observational Study

Daniel Agustín Chirino Navarta, Cecilia Maria Rinaldi, Omar Aguayo, Rolando Palacios, Graciela Trejo, Mariela Susana Leonardi, Gabriela Guthmann, Gustavo Calderón, Claudio Dizeo

Abstract


Background: The Cardiac and Comorbid Conditions - Heart Failure (3C-HF) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in ChronicHeart Failure (MAGGIC) are two score models developed to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). The performanceof these scores has been little studied in our setting.Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the 3C-HF and the MAGGIC scores to predict one-yearmortality in a population of patients with HF.Methods: Ambulatory HF patients discharged after hospitalization due to acute HF in two centers were included in the study.The 3C-HF and MAGGIC scores were calculated and one-year mortality was the study endpoint. The discrimination abilityof the scores was analyzed from the calculated area under the ROC curve and their calibration quality was assessed applyingthe Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Both areas under the ROC curve were compared using the Hanley-Mc Neil test.Results: A total of 704 patients with mean age of 73±11 years and 39.6% women were included in the study. One-year mortalitywas 12.4% (n=87). Both scores were independent predictors of mortality, with HR of 1.03 (95% CI 1.008-1.06; p=0.02)and 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.13; p=0.004) for the 3C-HF and MAGGIC scores, respectively. The area under the ROC curve for the3C-HF score was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.75) and for the MAGGIC score 0.67 (95% CI 0.61-0.73), without significant differencesbetween them (p=0.41). Both scores presented adequate calibration (p=0.06 and p=0.32, respectively).Conclusion: The 3C-HF and MAGGIC scores were predictors of one-year mortality, with a moderate ability to discriminateevents and adequate calibration. The discrimination ability between both scores was not significant.

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Revista argentina de cardiología. ISSN en línea 1850-3748. Argentine journal of cardiology (English ed. Online ISSN 2314-2286) Sociedad Argentina de Cardiología. Azcuénaga 980 (C1115AAD),Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, República Argentina. Tel. (54 11) 4961-6027/8/9 Fax: 4961-6020 www.sac.org.ar revista@sac.org.ar